Predictions

Can people predict the future? 

The results of tarot or palm readings are often uncannily accurate, even though you know it's random.  One explanation for this is called hindsight bias: essentially you create a story backwards from the outcome to the real or imagined beginning.  We eliminate any details that don't fit the prediction.  Another theory is that your prediction actually drives your subsequent behavior, thus influencing the outcome. 

Either of these subconscious tricks is fine when you're playing with cards, and may even work in your favor when you predict positive outcomes.  The problem is that many of us seem to be biased towards negative predictions - especially when it comes to cybersecurity! 

Be honest - don't you get a covert thrill when you tell a System Owner "I told you so" when they fail to act on your recommendations? 

I think the biggest problem with predictions comes when we make negative predictions about another person's behavior.  Saying or even thinking, "Kumar won't show up to the meeting.  He never comes to our meetings." taints your engagement with Kumar, no matter what. If he does show up, you say "Hmmph, so Jane finally decided to show up".  If he doesn't make it, even if he has a great reason, you get to say "I told you so".  There is no positive outcome possible, making this a zero-sum game.


Even worse, since Kumar didn't show up to the meeting, you may rewrite the history of your relationship with him to create a reason for his non-attendance.  He's flaky, disrespectful, and doesn't care about security.  You may even exclude all the evidence to the contrary, just to support your predictive narrative?

What if you tried flipping hindsight around to give everything the benefit of the doubt?  Always assume the best intentions - "Kumar is always supportive.  Something very important must have come up to make him miss a meeting".  Always predict the best outcomes - "I'm confident we will solve this problem together.  We always do, one way or another".

One final thought:  Hindsight bias can blind you to the things you could have done better on a project that ended well.  You could create a "doomed from the start" narrative on work that has a negative outcome, and wind up losing all the things the team did right.  Although these lessons contradict your narrative, they often turn out to be the most valuable part of an endeavor.
In hindsight, of course.